Feb 23

Publication | Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays


N.R. Taylor, J.L. Irish, I.E. Udoh, M.V. Bilskie, S.C. Hagen (2015). “Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane storm surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays.” Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1646-5

Abstract: Reliable and robust methods of extreme value-based hurricane surge prediction,
such as the joint probability method (JPM), are critical in the coastal engineering
profession. The JPM has become the preferred surge hazard assessment method in the
USA; however, it has a high computational cost: One location can require hundreds of
simulated storms and more than ten thousand computational hours to complete. Optimal
sampling methods that use physics-based surge response functions (SRFs) can reduce the
required number of simulations. This study extends the development of SRFs to bay
interior locations at Panama City, Florida. Mean SRF root-mean-square errors for open
coast and bay interior locations were 0.34 and 0.37 m, respectively, comparable with
ADCIRC errors. Average uncertainty increases from open coast, and bay SRFs were 10
and 12 %, respectively. Long-term climate trends, such as rising sea levels, introduce
nonstationarity into the simulated and historical surge datasets. A common approach to
estimating total flood elevations is to take the sum of projected sea-level rise (SLR) and
present day surge (static approach); however, this does not account for dynamic SLR
effects on surge generation. This study demonstrates that SLR has a significant dynamic
effect on surge in the Panama City area, and that total flood elevations, with respect to
changes in SLR, are poorly characterized as static increases. A simple adjustment relating
total flood elevation to present day conditions is proposed. Uncertainty contributions from
these SLR adjustments are shown to be reasonable for surge hazard assessments.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.mattbilskie.com/development-and-uncertainty-quantification-of-hurricane-surge-response-functions-for-hazard-assessment-in-coastal-bays/